The government estimated that around 100 independent schools would close over three years as a result of VAT on fees. That number was reached in one.
By January 2026, twelve months after the policy took effect, 105 schools had closed or been absorbed into other schools. Around 15 of those were mergers rather than outright closures. Roughly one in five of the schools that shut were in London or the surrounding area, which is not a coincidence: London has the highest density of small independent schools in the country, and small is what failed.
For parents choosing a sixth form now, this is not abstract news. It changes the questions worth asking on an open day.
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
The 2026 ISC Census, which covers 1,455 independent schools, gives the clearest picture of what the first VAT year did.
| Measure | Position in the 2026 census |
|---|---|
| Total pupils at ISC schools | 526,611 |
| Year on year change | Down 3.5%, the lowest total since before the pandemic |
| Average fee rise in the year to January 2025 | 22.6%, the year VAT was introduced |
| Average fee rise this census year, excluding VAT | 4.4% |
| Schools closed or merged by January 2026 | 105, including around 15 mergers |
Two things stand out. The fee shock was front-loaded into a single year, and the pupil loss did not stop when the shock passed. Schools that lost a fifth of their roll in 2025 did not get it back in 2026.
Why the Small Schools Went First
Closures concentrated in prep and day schools with fewer than 200 pupils, and the arithmetic explains why.
A school with 120 pupils and a Victorian building has broadly the same fixed costs as one with 400: the roof, the insurance, the safeguarding lead, the heating, the compliance. Those costs are spread across a third of the fee base. Add 20% VAT and remove business rates relief, and there is no lever left to pull. You cannot make a school meaningfully cheaper without making it a different school.
Two south west London closures show the pattern.
Park Hill School, Kingston. A prep school of 75 years standing, closed in 2025. The operator cited falling enrolment alongside the introduction of VAT, offered families places at a sister school in New Malden, and converted the site to full-time nursery provision, which is not subject to the same tax treatment.
Falcons School, Putney. Closed at the end of the academic year after more than 70 years, with the school telling parents that falling pupil numbers, rising costs and the new tax had made it financially unsustainable. It had 126 pupils in a building with space for 350.
That last figure is the one to remember. A school running at a third of capacity was already fragile. VAT did not create the problem; it removed the margin that had been hiding it.
Why Sixth Forms Held Up Better
Sixth forms and sixth form colleges have been noticeably more resilient than prep schools, and there are structural reasons for it rather than luck.
- Parents rarely move a student mid-A-level. Withdrawing a nine year old is disruptive. Withdrawing a seventeen year old halfway through a linear two year course risks the qualification itself, because specifications, coursework and exam board entries do not always transfer cleanly.
- The spend is short and purposeful. Two years with a university place at the end of it is an easier decision to defend than eleven years of fees.
- Small sixth forms are small by design. A tutorial college teaching in groups of two or five has a cost model built around that. It is not a large school that has run out of pupils.
- Demand at 16 is genuinely different. Students arrive at sixth form from state schools, from other independents, and from abroad, so a college is not dependent on retaining a cohort it recruited at four.
None of that makes a sixth form immune. It does mean the failure mode is different, and so are the warning signs.
What to Check Before You Enrol
Most parents ask about results and pastoral care. Almost nobody asks about the balance sheet. After the past two years, both belong on the list.
- Find out who owns it. Charitable trust, family-owned, or part of an education group. Each fails differently, and a group will usually move students to a sister school rather than close outright.
- Read the accounts. Companies House holds filings for schools run as limited companies, and the Charity Commission register covers charitable trusts. You are looking for the trend in reserves, not a single year's surplus. Start at Companies House, or search the Charity Commission register for a charitable trust.
- Ask for the roll, three years back. Not the capacity, the actual number on roll each September. A school at 40% capacity and falling is a different proposition from one at 90%.
- Ask what happened to fees in January 2025 and what has happened since. A straight answer here tells you a lot about how the school communicates under pressure.
- Ask directly what happens if the school closes mid-course. A confident school will have an answer about exam entries, transfers and fees already paid. Hesitation is information.
- Check how fees in advance are protected. If you pay a term or a year up front, ask whether that money sits in a separate account and what happens to it in an insolvency.
- Read the most recent inspection report. Independent Schools Inspectorate reports cover governance and management, not only teaching, and both sit in the same document.
- Look at the teaching staff turnover. Departing staff are usually the first visible sign of financial strain, well before any announcement.
Our parents' guide to choosing a sixth form college covers the academic side of the same visit.
If Your School Announces a Closure Mid-Course
It happens with more notice than families fear, usually at the end of an academic year, but the priority order matters.
Secure the exam entries first. Your student is entered with a specific exam board for specific specifications. Any new school needs to know exactly which, because a switch between boards mid-course means different content and different coursework.
Ask for the coursework and centre-assessed material in writing. Anything already completed and marked should follow the student, not sit on a server that gets switched off.
Move in the summer if you possibly can. A transfer between Year 12 and Year 13 is manageable. A transfer in February of Year 13 is not, and the sensible alternative is often to complete the year and retake rather than to switch mid-flight.
Consider a tutorial college as the bridge. Colleges teaching in very small groups can pick up a student partway through a course in a way a large school timetable cannot, and they are used to students arriving mid-year. Our guide to A level retakes sets out what that route involves if the year cannot be salvaged.
Where This Goes Next
The Independent Schools Council has warned that closures will continue through 2026, with VAT now compounded by the removal of charitable rates relief and higher employer National Insurance. The policy detail sits in the government's own VAT on private school fees guidance.
The realistic expectation is more consolidation rather than a cliff edge: small preps merging into groups, some senior schools taking on sixth form provision to spread costs, and a sector that is smaller and more London-weighted at the top end than it was in 2024.
For families, the practical upshot is simple. Ask the financial questions on the open day. A school with nothing to hide will answer them, and the answer is worth more than the prospectus.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many private schools have closed because of VAT?
By January 2026, one year after VAT on fees took effect, 105 independent schools had closed or been absorbed through mergers. Around 15 of those were mergers. Not every closure is attributable to VAT alone, but the total was reached in one year rather than the three the government projected.
Are London private schools closing faster than elsewhere?
Roughly one in five of the schools that shut were in London or the surrounding area. London has an unusually high concentration of small independent preps, which are the schools that proved least able to absorb a 20% price rise.
Are sixth form colleges at risk of closing too?
Less so than prep schools, because their cost model, cohort and length of commitment are different. That is a matter of degree rather than immunity, which is why checking a college's ownership, roll and accounts is still worth an hour of your time.
What happens to my child if their school closes mid-A-level?
Exam entries and coursework have to be transferred to a new centre, ideally with the same exam board and specification. Most closures are announced with a term or more of notice and schools will help arrange transfers, but the responsibility for confirming entries ultimately sits with the receiving school.
Will fees keep rising at this rate?
The 22.6% rise covered the year VAT was introduced and was a one-off adjustment. The most recent census year showed an average increase of 4.4% excluding VAT, which is closer to the sector's historic pattern.
